Open weights or a hosted API

Do you run a model whose weights you have, or call someone else's endpoint?

The short answer

Build against an API, measure real volume and real quality needs, then price self-hosting against those numbers. The crossover is about utilisation, not principle.

Hosted API

Good at

  • Starting today, with no capacity planning and no GPUs.
  • Access to the strongest frontier models, which is where the hardest tasks are still won.
  • Absorbing demand spikes without you owning the hardware for the peak.
  • Getting improvements, longer contexts and new features without doing any work.
  • Operational features — caching, batch discounts, structured output — that are real engineering to rebuild.

Costs you

  • Per-token cost that scales linearly with success, with no floor to amortise against.
  • Data leaves your network, which for some organisations ends the discussion.
  • Rate limits and availability you do not control.
  • Model versions get deprecated on someone else's schedule, and behaviour shifts under you.
  • No access to logprobs, activations or weights, which rules out some techniques entirely.

Pick this when: Volume is uncertain, the task needs the strongest available model, or nobody on the team wants to be on call for a GPU.

Open weights, self-run

Good at

  • Data never leaving your boundary.
  • Cost that flattens with volume — at high steady utilisation, cost per token falls well below API pricing.
  • Fine-tuning, quantizing, distilling, or reading the internals.
  • A model that does not change unless you change it, which matters for regulated and reproducible work.
  • Air-gapped and on-premises deployments that an API cannot serve at all.

Costs you

  • You now run an inference service: capacity, batching, autoscaling, upgrades, on-call.
  • Idle GPUs cost the same as busy ones, so low or spiky traffic is expensive per request.
  • The best open models still trail the frontier on hard reasoning and long-horizon tasks.
  • Long context is disproportionately expensive to serve yourself, because of the KV cache.
  • Real engineering time, which is usually the largest line in the comparison and the one left out of it.

Pick this when: Steady high volume, a hard data-residency requirement, or you need to modify or inspect the model.

Where the field disagrees

Where the cost crossover actually sits. Self-hosting advocates quote cost per million tokens at full GPU utilisation, which almost no real workload sustains; API advocates quote list prices and omit that batch and caching discounts change them substantially. Both numbers are true of the workload the person quoting them has in mind.

The other decisions